Volcanic eruption may have helped trigger the French Revolution

Serious volcanic outbreaks and changes in the sun’s activity may have set the stage for some of the world’s most famous rebellion, including the French Revolution.

It has long been second that hard environmental conditions such as drought, deforestation and extremes of heat and cold can lead to social chaos, failed harvest and even illness.

One of the most serious periods of weather experienced in the last millennium, known as the small ice age, Ronother’s Mémisphere, especially Europe and North America, from approx. 1250 to 1860. During this period of deviating colds when temperatures fell off one. To 1.75 ° C and rainfall fell by as much as half, agriculture was thrown in chaos.

David Kaniewski at the University of Toulouse in France and his colleagues shed literature to identify 140 rebellions in this interval large enough for the historical record.

For their study, they compared the records of these different social cisers with records of solar activity, volcanic eruptions and climate change along with swings in the price of grain and bread to see if there was any connection between them and extreme weather associated with the small ice age.

“We see -on how spikes in turmoil in line with environmental changes and the challenges it poses to society,” says Kaniewski.

The team found that especially cold fasses of the small ice age that are summarized with increases in the number of rebellions.

“We also found that major volcanic eruptions that temporarily cool the climate were followed by social chaos on levels that were statistically,” says Kaniewski. “Sunspot items that track the sun’s activity and its cycles showed that fewer solar meats associated with cooler global temperatures coincided with several upper upper.

As temperatures dropped by between 0.6 ° C and 0.7 ° C, which through volcanic activity or a decrease in the number of solar meats, there were an average of 0.72 more riots a year with similar results for rainfall rainfall.

But the team found the biggest correlation when comparing the number of rebellions or revolutions with the price of wheat and barley. Steep price increases led to another 1.16 rebellion a year.

Kaniewski says that when the harvest failed, famine was threatened, prices rose, and people were far more likely to revolt. However, the team also found that some nations, such as England, which undoubtedly also experienced breathing during this period, adapted and rode the crises better than others.

The researchers believe that although the climate did not directly lead to rebellion, the environmental led to cascades of events led to food shortages, as evidenced by increasing grain prices. This could again encourage people to go up against authority.

“Narcity of food is like a fallow forest after a long drought,” says Kaniewski. “When you add political or social or social complaints, it can ignite rebellion.”

One of the most extreme periods of upheaval followed the outbreak of Iceland’s Laki volcano in June 1783, which led to higher levels of sulfur dioxide in the atmosphere and had a cooling effect on the climate. The team discovered that after this period, from 1788 to 1798, there was a highlight of 1.4 rebellion annually, the riot includes for the French Revolution.

Kaniewski says that understanding the small ice age can offer a glump in the challenges facing humanity with future climate predictions: “Today’s climate change can be far more disputes.”

However, Tim Flannery at the Australian Museum in Sydney says that the connection between climate change and rebellion and revolution, as shown in this study, is a matter of coherence, not cause.

“It is equally likely that people will fall into chaos, migrate, commit suicide or with Elsever otherwise in a stressful period as starting a rebellion,” says Flannery. “I’m not saying it’s wrong, but I don’t think it represents much of a step forward from what we knew before and there has to be a much deeper analysis.”

Jeremy Moss at the University of New South Wales in Sydney says that when considering the damage that humans and the natural system are likely to experience due to climate change, direct effects are only part of the equation. “Often is just as important how and why people and natural systems become vulnerable to these dangers and what we do in response to such vulnerability,” says Moss.