European cities are facing millions more deaths as a result of extreme temperatures

There will be an extra 2.3 million temperature -related deaths in Europe’s hand cities in 2099 without more action to limit warming and adapt to it, researchers predict. However, in cities in colder northern countries such as Britain, there will be bi-temperature-related deaths during this period, because the fall in deaths from cold will be greater than the increase in deaths from heat.

“We are estimating a slight net fall, but it is very small compared to the great infritesis we could see in the Mediterranean,” says Pierre Masselot at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.

Masselot’s team started by looking at epidemiological investigations of how death rises during periods of extreme warm or extreme cold. His team then used these statistical links to estimate how the number of excess deaths would change in the next century in different warming scenarios.

The study looks at 850 cities – home to 40 per. Hundreds of Europe’s population – but no rural areas. This is because the statistical connections are stronger, where many people live in a small area and are exposed to about the same conditions.

If cities adapt, the IncreeSee effect of climate change that is the exponent of greater heating. In a scenario similar to our current race, the number of excess deaths related to temperature would increase by 50 percent, from 91 per year. 100,000 people a year in recent years to 136 per year. 100,000 people a year before 2099.

Adaptive measures such as the wider use of air conditioning and planting more trees in inner cities would bring down these numbers, Massel says, but reducing a population’s vulnerability to heat requires significant adaptive measures significantly. “This is much more than what we have already observed in many country all over the world.”

The team’s estimates are based on the average daily temperatures in heating scenarios, and they do not include the possibility of much more extreme heat waves. “We have found that this is usually good enough to be able to relate deaths to temperature,” says Masselot.

This is the most understandable study of its kind so far, he says. It includes several countries and suggests for the first time that even France and Germany will have more temperature -related deaths as the continent warms.

Rising temperatures will have a broad rage of effects on humans, from their health to their productivity, he says. “Mortality is only part of the story.”